Kazakhstan's future after the elections: Russia, EU or China

On August 23, Kazakhstan, a former Soviet country that has recently adopted a new constitution, will hold elections to its parliament.

The legislative body will be transformed from a two-chamber to a single-chamber system. Citizens will elect 145 members of parliament via party lists. All seven registered parties have been admitted to the election, including the ruling party, Adilet (which translates to "Justice").

But the election result is the least of the campaign's intrigues. Experts DW interviewed agree that no party other than President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's Adilet stands a chance of winning.

Consolidation of power in the president's hands

Luca Anceschi, Professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow, Scotland, suggests that the new parliament will do the same as the previous one, "which is pretty much to represent whatever the regime wants them to do."

In his view, one should not expect representatives of the genuine opposition to be elected to parliament.

Stefan Meister, Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), shares this assessment. He says the ruling party is likely to win the election, a scenario also reflected in recent opinion polls.

Both experts agree that these elections are intended to consolidate Tokayev's power and further weaken the bloc led by Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country's president from 1991-2019.

Constitutional amendments approved earlier allow Tokayev to seek another seven-year presidential term in 2029 and replace the two-chamber parliament with a single-chamber assembly called the Kurultai.

According to former Kazakhstani senator Zauresh Battalova, who now heads the NGO Foundation for the Development of Parliamentarism in Kazakhstan, what matters is not the number of chambers in parliament, but "the scope of its powers, its autonomy and its ability to oversee the executive branch of government."

The new constitution has changed not only the structure of parliament but also the way its members are elected. Independent candidates are no longer allowed to run under the current electoral system. Zauresh Battalova sees this as one of the factors limiting voters' political choice.

"The election will be held exclusively on the basis of party lists, in the absence of a political opposition and with limited party competition. The scope for genuine political choice remains extremely narrow," she told DW.

Kazakhstan's democratic backlash: Will Europe react?

Meister and Anceschi both say that one should not expect any reaction from European Union members or the European Commission to the deterioration in political freedoms in Kazakhstan.

Meister points out that, since the start of the war in Ukraine, the EU has adopted a more pragmatic approach towards Central Asian states. Europe is now interested in developing trade routes as an alternative to those via Russia, as well as in the region's abundant resources. In his view, the only bodies likely to react to the current situation in Kazakhstan are civil society organizations, the European Parliament or the Council of Europe.

"The days when the European Union and individual EU member states were more critical of the rule of law and governance in Central Asia are gone, unfortunately," Anceschi says.

The University of Glasgow professor notes that an authoritarian backslide is taking place not only in Kazakhstan but also in other EU partner countries.

As for Kazakhstan itself, says Meister, it remains the least repressive authoritarian country in the region, with at least some space for civil society, albeit one that is narrowing.

"Wherever you buy your oil and gas from, you are never going to buy it from a democracy ― unless it is Norway. So, in that sense, there is not much of a choice," Anceschi says.

In 2025, Kazakhstan became the second-largest oil exporter to the EU, with a total share of 12.8%, amounting to 55.8 million tons of crude oil, surpassed only by the United States, according to the European Council of the EU.

The future of Kazakhstan's foreign policy

Experts acknowledge that Kazakhstan has managed to remain neutral in the standoff between Russia and Europe against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Maintaining this course may prove difficult.

"They are affected by the conflict, but they are not participating," says Anceschi, describing the country's current position as a "geopolitical comfort zone."

Kazakhstan has not officially opposed the European sanctions against Russia, nor has it joined them.

"Of course, it is a task with only one ultimate goal, which is the preservation of authoritarian rule," Anceschi says. "So even in this case, foreign policy is becoming an instrument for achieving internal stability."

Meister, in turn, draws attention to the increasing level of cooperation between the Central Asian states, which, facing significant external pressure, tend to act as a single bloc while actively seeking to reduce tensions among themselves. He suggests that Kazakhstan is interested in diversifying its external relations not only with the EU, Russia and China, but also with other world powers, such as Arab or East Asian states.

According to Meister, Kazakhstan "does not want to be too dependent on Russia ― it has seen what Russia is doing in Ukraine ― and it does not want to be dependent on China."

So, the country is looking for alternatives, and Europe could be one of them, both as a market for its resources and as a potential investor in Kazakhstan's economy.

This article was adapted from Russian.

Reporting originally appeared via DW News. Read the full source for additional context.