Millions in, nothing out: Human cost of Kenya's looming maize shortage

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Samuel Macharia did the arithmetic the way any serious farmer would: seventy acres of maize in Moi's Bridge, Uasin Gishu County; a projected harvest of 1,500 bags; and Sh6 million revenue—enough to clear the Sh1.5 million loan he had taken from Kenya Commercial Bank, and have some savings.

His wife did her own arithmetic too. She borrowed an additional Sh1.2 million from Equity Bank to buy a second-hand tractor, hoping that mechanisation would push the farm further into profit in the seasons ahead.

Neither loan will be repaid from this year's crop, as there is no harvest.

“These are the loans we could have easily repaid from the returns from the produce, but all has gone down the drain as a result of the effects of drought and damage to the crop by diseases,” Mr Macharia said.

This is not an isolated case. He is among many who have found themselves in a season that, according to the Agriculture ministry, is on track to leave Kenya short of 5.4 million bags of maize by the end of September, forcing a plan to import one million 90-kilogramme bags to bridge the gap. The failure did not announce itself early. According to Phanice Khatundi, Trans Nzoia's County Executive Committee member for Agriculture, the long rains arrived earlier than usual, with onset in mid-February encouraging farmers to prepare land and plant on schedule. Then the pattern broke.

“As the season progressed, an erratic rainfall pattern emerged that disrupted the normal crop calendar and farming operations,” she said, noting that what followed diverged sharply from the seasonal forecast the Kenya Meteorological Department had issued for March through May, as the dry spell dragged into June and July.

Trans Nzoia, which usually produces about 6 million bags of maize a year worth an estimated Sh15 billion–Sh20 billion, received just 48.8mm of rain between mid-May and early July, according to county data, well below the long-term average for that window. The county had projected 6.34 million bags from 116,000 hectares this season. It now expects about 3.62 million bags, according to Ms Khatundi, a drop of more than 40 per cent.

In Uasin Gishu, Macharia’s home county, farmers scaled back planting altogether. Roughly 77,225 of the targeted 92,500 hectares were planted, after the county received just 22.5mm of rain during the April–May planting window, compared to 134mm the year before, according to county figures.

More than 120,000 smallholders across the North Rift have been affected, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, which projects the region’s harvest will drop by 30 per cent this season. Sammin Kipkemboi Kottut, Uasin Gishu's executive for Agriculture, said the depressed rainfall has been compounded by an outbreak of fall armyworm in parts of Soy, Moiben and Kapseret, a pest he linked directly to the irregular weather.

“The depressed rainfall has resulted in wilting of food and cash crops, threatening to reverse gains made in the agriculture sector,” Mr Kottut said.

Mr Macharia’s losses are not the worst on record this season, only the most detailed. Other farmers in the North Rift are telling versions of the same story. Michael Kosgei farms 10 acres in Ziwa, Uasin Gishu. “I watched my crop wither at the tasselling stage,” he said. “I normally harvest 25 to 30 bags per acre. But this year I expect to harvest nothing, not even for domestic consumption.”

Matthew Lagat's farm has already drawn the attention of the ministry’s assessment teams. “A team of researchers from the Ministry of Agriculture visited my farm to assess maize performance. They collected crop performance data to determine the anticipated yield,” he said.

In Kipsaina, Cherangany, Sammy Kurgat put more than Sh200,000 into 10 acres of maize. He may realise no harvest at all. “This is the worst year of my life. All my investment is gone, and I don't know how my family is going to survive,” he said.

Josephat Kemboi, also in Cherangany, lost part of his crop across 20 acres. “We have been badly hit after most of the crop withered. There is no hope even if the rains fall,” he said, adding that only pockets of farmers in the county would see any harvest at all.

Some are already planning their next move. Mathew Koech, in Ziwa, is preparing to plant short-season, drought-tolerant crops in the upcoming short rains, hoping to recoup at least the cost of land lease, seed, fertiliser and weeding. “The maize cobs did not fully form as expected,” he said.

Ms Khatundi has laid out both immediate and longer-term responses for Trans Nzoia: conservation agriculture practices like maize residue incorporation and minimum tillage, distribution of drought-tolerant certified seeds, fast-maturing bean varieties, expanded irrigation infrastructure, and better localised weather forecasting. “Immediate mitigation measures and long-term investments in climate resilience should be prioritised to reduce the severity of climatic shocks that undermine agricultural productivity and food security in the county,” she said.

At the national level, the Ministry of Agriculture has deployed a team to assess crop performance across the North Rift, according to Principal Secretary Paul Ronoh, to inform an emergency compensation plan. “We have embarked on a comprehensive crop failure audit to assess the impact on food security and prepare an emergency compensation plan,” he said.

The measures already announced include converting damaged, immature maize into animal feed so that farmers can recover some value rather than lose the crop entirely, and subsidised seed and fertiliser to help farmers plant during the October–December short rains.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki chaired a high-level crisis meeting with Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries last month to assess the country's preparedness.

“The government will go out of its way to ensure the current drought situation does not compromise the country's food security,” Prof Kindiki said. “We are taking every possible measure to ensure no Kenyan goes hungry and that farmers are supported to recover from the losses caused by the prevailing weather conditions.”

Kenya has also secured a bilateral commitment from Zambia to import up to one million 90-kilogramme bags of maize, agreed in February and intended as a buffer against drought and the thinning local reserves.

Kenya's annual maize requirement stands at 52 million bags, covering human consumption, livestock feed manufacturing, seed multiplication and other products, according to the figures cited in ministry data. The North Rift alone produced 44.8 million bags in the 2024 season, and the country logged a bumper harvest of 67 million bags last season, according to the same reporting. This season's decline would mark a sharp reversal.

President William Ruto has pledged that his administration will move Kenya from maize importer to exporter status, pointing to the roughly Sh500 billion the country spends annually on food imports, including maize and wheat.

According to the 2026 Economic Survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, maize imports jumped 51.4 per cent in 2025 to 468,109 tonnes, driven by a duty-free window opened for yellow maize. Kenya imports more than it exports, a pattern that has widened its trade deficit to Sh1.6 trillion.

The Parliamentary Committee on Agriculture has toured the North Rift to assess the damage firsthand. Committee members—David Kiplagat, MP for Soy, and Josses Lelmengit, MP for Emgwen—said they would report back on how to cushion farmers from further losses. “The committee will retreat and table its report on how farmers can be cushioned from the losses and avert possible food shortages,” Mr Kiplagat said.

Reporting originally appeared via Nation Africa. Read the full source for additional context.