Ukraine: Could ex-defense minister challenge Zelenskyy?

This week, Ukraine was rocked by a series of political scandals. A month after stepping down as defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov addressed the Ukrainian people in a nine-minute speech posted on his YouTube channel.

In his video message, he declares that Ukraine "cannot remain without a fully appointed minister of defense." But, he continues, "the main problem goes much deeper than one position or one ministry."

He says Ukraine's greatest challenge is a "systemic crisis of governance," of which corruption is only a symptom. Fedorov also criticized the fact that no national elections have been held in Ukraine since 2019.

A few hours earlier, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had proposed Yevhenii Khmara to parliament as the new defense minister. Khmara had been made acting minister of defense on July 20, and parliament confirmed him in the position on August 19.

Corruption scandal involving public authorities

When Fedorov spoke of corruption in government authorities, he may not have known about the scandal that would break the very day after he published his speech. On August 19, Ukrainian anti-corruption investigators searched the premises of several high-ranking officials, including a presidential deputy chief of staff, Iryna Mudra, and a member of parliament, Vadym Stolar.

Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) stated that it was "conducting a special operation to expose a criminal organization" in conjunction with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office.

According to the investigating authorities, this organization was led by a current and a former Ukrainian lawmaker, and involved senior officials from the president's office. Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Mudra from her post as presidential deputy chief of staff the same day.

In his video, Mykhailo Fedorov warns that "it is especially dangerous when society feels that the main criterion for appointing a person is not their professionalism, results, or ability […] but their personal loyalty to the system." He says that a "legal, safe, and realistic mechanism" needs to be found to make it possible to hold elections, even if Russia's war against Ukraine continues for a long time.

Ukraine's constitution forbids elections in time of war

The president dismissed Fedorov from his post as defense minister on July 15. Protests calling for his reinstatement began the following day in Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities. According to polls conducted by the Rating opinion research institute on July 20 and 21, trust in the ex-minister rose from 35% to 65% in the first week of the protests. Of the respondents, 72% thought Fedorov should not have been sacked.

A poll conducted on August 5 and 6 showed Fedorov in third place in the presidential ratings, on 12.5%. Volodymyr Zelenskyy led with 25.2%, followed by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, on 16.7%.

Ihor Chalenko, a political scientist from the Center for Analysis and Strategies in Kyiv, says Fedorov's address was an attempt to consolidate the political capital he won during the protests. Even though Fedorov does not present a full election program in his video, Chalenko thinks he is calculating on positioning himself as an independent political player who could stand against Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"For 35 days, people were out on the street. The demonstrations started with the demand that Fedorov be reinstated as minister of defense. But the fear is that the spotlight has moved on from Fedorov, because the protest campaign became increasingly focussed on the fight against corruption and protecting the anti-corruption authorities. So the former minister has decided to position himself politically and secure the status he attained," Chalenko said in an interview with DW.

No opposition to the president?

However, Chalenko doesn't believe that Fedorov has shifted to "irreconcilable opposition" to Zelenskyy. While there is clearly a conflict between Fedorov and the president's inner circle, Chalenko doesn't see this as a permanent rift with the government, and he doesn't rule out a return for Fedorov were he to be offered a position.

Oleksiy Haran, a professor of political science at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy, thinks Fedorov's remarks about elections and a renewal of the power of state send an important signal. However, he too says he sees no decisive change in opposition to the president. "We haven't heard any criticism at all of Zelenskyy," he told DW.

Demand for elections and change

Haran says Fedorov's speech expresses what the people want. Polls show that Ukrainians do indeed want a change of government. However, the political scientist emphasizes that there is a problem: "We agree that Russia cannot dictate to us when and how we should hold elections. But the question is: how should we hold elections if Russia continues the war?"

He believes that in order to hold full elections a stable ceasefire is needed, at the very least, and this is precisely what Fedorov does not mention in his remarks.

Vadym Denysenko, a political analyst at the Ukrainian thinktank Business Capital, believes Fedorov's speech is not an election campaign by one former minister but the start of a bigger political game. In a Facebook post, Denysenko describes two developments he is observing one month after Fedorov's dismissal. First, the social milieu he refers to as "Self-Help 3.0", which includes the anti-corruption movement, has found a political leader in Fedorov. Secondly, some of Zelenskyy's former followers have switched allegiance to Fedorov, and these, the analyst says, are now his strongest supporters.

Denysenko appreciates Fedorov's comments as a contribution to the discussion about renewing the power of state. He points out that these are the same ideas Zelenskyy campaigned on in 2019. Even though Fedorov doesn't directly say in his video that he would stand in an election, the analyst is sure this is what Fedorov's inner circle is working toward.

And, in his view, they have nothing to lose. "If elections were to be held soon, Fedorov stands a good chance of doing well," Denysenko says. "If there are no elections, they can strengthen his grassroots support, and further weaken Zelenskyy."

This article was originally written in Ukrainian.

Reporting originally appeared via DW News. Read the full source for additional context.