Warning ahead: Govt identifies 18 counties at risk of El Niño, warns of floods

This story has significance for readers across Kenya and beyond.

- The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority forecast an 81% probability of a strong El Niño developing this year, with effects potentially lasting into early 2027

- A National Disaster Operations Centre risk assessment flagged counties across the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions as highly vulnerable

- Mombasa and Kisumu were listed among high-risk urban centres facing flooding, drainage failure and infrastructure pressure

Nairobi - The Kenyan government has flagged 18 counties as highly exposed to risks associated with a potentially strong El Niño event, which forecasters say could bring above-normal rainfall starting in October.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has placed the probability of a strong El Niño developing this year at 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027.

Counties Flagged by Risk Assessment

A national risk assessment produced by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) identified specific threats in each affected region, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and damage to critical infrastructure.

In a press release issued on Monday, August 10, the government said the mapping exercise formed part of a broader preparedness strategy intended to reduce harm ahead of the anticipated weather event.

"The Government has mapped out areas exposed to various risks, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage. The national risk assessment, prepared by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), places counties in the Coastal, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions among the areas facing the highest level of vulnerability," the government said.

Along the Coast, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale face threats from flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage, with possible displacement of residents in the most affected areas.

Lake Basin counties — Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori — are at risk of flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and population displacement.

In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok have been identified as vulnerable to drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity.

The North Eastern counties of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera could face drought, water shortages, poor pasture conditions, food insecurity and potential livestock losses.

Urban Centres Also at Risk

Beyond rural counties, the assessment identifies Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu as high-risk urban centres. These cities face the prospect of urban flooding, overwhelmed drainage systems, strain on public infrastructure and disruption to essential services.

The government said all 18 identified counties had been prioritised in emergency response planning based on their specific exposure to the various hazards linked to El Niño conditions.

Source: TUKO.co.ke

Reporting originally appeared via TUKO. Read the full source for additional context.