Should India worry about the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey pact?

The "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement" signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan on August 7, comes amid the Iran war and shifting security arrangements in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia is seeking additional security partnerships as it faces uncertainty over the reliability of the US security umbrella. Turkey is seeking a larger regional role, while Pakistan is looking to turn its longstanding military relationship with Riyadh into wider strategic influence.

The agreement calls for collective defense, stating an armed attack on one member will be regarded as an attack on all three.

It also formalizes relationships that already exist. Pakistan has trained and assisted Saudi forces for decades, while its defense relationship with Turkey has expanded through military exchanges and cooperation.

For India, the question is whether the pact gives archrival Pakistan a deeper role in a region central to Indian interests.

Pact changes little on the ground for India

Some Indian analysts see little immediate change in the regional balance. Others see a warning that India needs a stronger security presence in a region where its economic interests have grown considerably.

Saudi Arabia is a major energy and investment partner for New Delhi. The Gulf and the Red Sea are vital to India's trade and energy security.

The pact allows Pakistan to expand on its security role in the Gulf while providing an institutional framework for closer defense cooperation and potentially greater access to funding and technology.

However, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria believes the agreement will have little effect on the basic dynamics of an India Pakistan confrontation.

"The Mecca pact is not worth the paper it's written on," Bisaria told DW.

"It does little to move the needle beyond the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact of last year, an arrangement that proved to have only signaling value for Iran, the US and Israel, at a moment when Riyadh was unsettled by the frailty of the American security umbrella," he added.

In the event of a future India-Pakistan crisis, the former ambassador said he does not expect the pact to fundamentally alter Saudi Arabia's position.

"For India, this is a pact to be monitored, not one to be unduly concerned about," Bisaria said.

"In the event of another terrorist attack from Pakistan, the situation is unlikely to look very different from Operation Sindoor, save, perhaps, for some added rhetoric," he said, referring to the name of India's response to a 2025 attack on tourists in Kashmir that New Delhi has blamed on Pakistan-backed militants. Islamabad has denied any involvement in the attack.

"Turkey would continue to supply drones and equipment to Pakistan, while the Saudis, far from rushing to position themselves as its defenders, are more likely to offer their services, more vocally, as mediators," he said.

No immediate concern for India

Tara Kartha, former member of the National Security Council Secretariat, believes India should not overstate the significance of the agreement.

"India doesn't need to be overly concerned about the Mecca pact. Saudi Arabia and Turkey hardly see us as a strategic competitor or an 'enemy'," Kartha told DW.

Much of the Pakistan-Turkey military relationship already exists, Kartha added. "Turkey's formidable defense industry will certainly be made available for the pact's constituents," she said.

"But Pakistan and Turkey already have a strong defense relationship, including joint development of the Kaan aircraft. So, nothing really changes on the ground barring possibly increased funding for the Pakistan defense budget. That is certainly a problem that can't be easily circumvented," she said.

The more immediate concern for India may be whether Saudi resources and Turkish technology could strengthen Pakistan's military capabilities over time.

India's ties with Saudi Arabia

Beyond the India-Pakistan rivalry, the pact also raises questions about India's ties with Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom has built a substantial relationship with India, spanning energy, investment, trade and political ties. And Riyadh's effort to diversify its security partnerships does not necessarily mean choosing Pakistan over India.

Geopolitical analyst Harsh Pant, vice president at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, told DW that India should respond cautiously but not passively.

"The different strategic interests of the three members could limit the pact's cohesion, but New Delhi should use its own relationship with Riyadh to deepen security, intelligence and economic cooperation," Pant said.

Deeper bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia, he added, could help ensure that Pakistan's new role does not translate into disproportionate influence in the Gulf.

New Delhi will also have to watch the military dimension closely. If Turkish drones, missiles, electronic warfare systems or other defense technologies become more readily available to Pakistan, India's western security calculations could change.

A wake-up call for India?

Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India's Ministry of External Affairs, said New Delhi was examining the pact's implications "from the perspective of India's national security and considerations of regional peace and stability."

"India remains fully committed to safeguarding its national interests and will take all necessary measures in this regard," he said.

Strategic expert C. Raja Mohan told DW that the trilateral agreement points to a larger problem in India's approach to the Gulf. India's economic dependence on the region has grown considerably, while its security presence has remained comparatively limited, he said.

"For India, this should be a warning that New Delhi cannot remain primarily a diplomatic and economic player in the Gulf. It needs greater military reach in the region and deeper, practical security and defense relationships with individual Middle Eastern countries," Mohan said.

He sees a widening mismatch between India's interests and its security presence.

"The gap between India's economic interests and its limited military-security presence is becoming harder to ignore," he added.

India could deepen defense and intelligence cooperation with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, strengthen maritime security in the Arabian Sea and Red Sea, and closely monitor Pakistan-Turkey military cooperation.

Mohan, a professor of American Studies at Jindal Global University, sees the agreement principally as an attempt by Saudi Arabia to widen its options.

"I see it more as evidence of the Arab states' continuing inability to build a dependable regional security system and, importantly, as Saudi Arabia hedging against uncertainty over the reliability of the US security umbrella," Mohan said.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Reporting originally appeared via DW News. Read the full source for additional context.